Weather Trends retail forecast

Temperatures in September 2012 will continue to trend above normal across much of the nation. However, year-over-year warmer trends will be reserved to the Midwest states and the Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys. Cooler weather will encompass the Northeast and much of the West, which will elicit demand for more of a seasonal-type product mix than last year.

In the Plains states, where last year was very dry, precipitation will be much greater this year, which will favor seasonal grass seed and fertilizers. Wetter weather in the Northwest will bring stronger demand for indoor project categories, such as paints, but dampen demand for outdoor-related project categories. In contrast, the Northeast, which was soaked by multiple tropical systems year, will be much drier this year, which will improve demand for outdoor project categories. In fact, the tropics will be much less active this year, however, if a storm were to form and make landfall, the most susceptible location for a strike would be along the Texas Gulf Coast and, possibly, Florida.

Flooding and wind damage from last year’s storms along the East Coast provided a boost for store traffic and such products as plywood, plastic sheeting, power generators and sump pumps at home centers. This year, expect much lower demand for these and other cleanup categories as Mother Nature is unlikely to provide a repeat performance.

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